In a general election, the key to winning is getting groups that traditionally support your party to turn out. However, the 2016 election is a bit more unpredictable than past elections.
The analyses are based on results from the latest NBC News SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll that conducted online from May 2 through May 8 of 12,714 adults including 11,089 registered voters. The analysis shows the support each candidate has in keys groups in the electorate.
As Trump’s campaign switches focus to defeating the Democratic nominee in November, he may also need to focus on improving his standing with a number of key voter groups. Clinton, who has dominated Sanders throughout the primary cycle among non-white voters, continues to do extremely well against Trump among these voters. She wins black voters 86 percent to 9 percent a 77 point gap. Clinton also wins Hispanics 61 percent to 28 percent. Trump wins the white vote 52 percent to 41 percent.
There is also a significant gender gap this election cycle, with Clinton beating Trump by 19 points among women, while Trump carries men by an 11 percent margin. Women have typically been strong supporters of recent Democratic presidential candidates.
Examining the electorate by education level and income are important as both are key predictors of whether someone will vote. Higher education levels, for example, are historically correlated with a higher probability of voting. Clinton beats Trump 51 percent to 41 percent among those with a college degree. Trump made headlines after winning the Nevada Republican caucus in February when he said he loved the “poorly educated.” Results suggest they love him, too, as he wins those with a high school degree or less by 3 points 48 percent to 45 percent.
Among those with family incomes of less than $50,000 a year, Clinton does significantly better than Trump by 19 points. Voters with family incomes over $100,000 a year are split on their choice between the billionaire real-estate mogul and former secretary of state, 47 percent of high-earning voters support Clinton, while 48 percent support Trump.
Age has also been a particularly significant factor, voters under 45 regardless of party affiliation favor Clinton to Trump by 18 points. Trump carries those 45 and older by 3 points 48 percent to 45 percent.
It is important to mention that the support for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump among key groups can change at any time in the next 6 months until November 8.